MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska

Martin Stuefer, Xiande Meng, and Gerd Wendler
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775

Fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail forecasts are based on a conventional algorithm describing the adiabatic mixing of aircraft exhaust with environmental air. Algorithm input data are MM5 forecasted temperature and humidity values at defined pressure or sigma levels, and an aircraft relevant contrail factor that is derived statistically from a contrail observation database.

2005, Monthly Weather Review, Vol 133(12), 3517-3526.
Funding was provided by the University Partnering for Operational Support (UPOS) initiative.